Saturday, November 1, 2008

Game Notes: 10/31

Oh man, lots of blow outs tonight…

New York – 87 at Philadelphia – 116

Philly’s big, athletic starting lineup really took it to New York, absolutely crushing them on the boards 61-43. Iggy didn’t score much, and from the look of things he didn’t need, but did round his line out with 6 boards and 7 dimes. Elton Brand put up a big double double, and Willie Green was on fire the second he got off the bench (he has a game like this about once every 3 weeks. It is best just to pretend they never happen, because even with the open flow of this game considered… he is just too random). None of the New York starters matched their opening night lines, but Chris Duhon had a game (5-6-7 with 3 steals and 1 TO) that I think is a better indicator of what his Knick line will be than his opening night performance.

Things to watch: For the second straight game Thad Young failed to register a steal or a block. While an efficient 12-5 is nice, the reason he was in the conversation with guys like Al Thornton is because it was believed that with ~30mpg he could approach 2 spg. I wouldn’t make anything of this yet, as steals can be fickle, but if this doesn’t turn around I would have trouble making a case to own him.


Golden State – 108 at Toronto – 112 (OT)

All Warriors not named Corey Maggette put up nice lines here. Brandan Wright and CJ Watson both came off the bench before Azuibuke (foul trouble did not influence this), but Kelenna ended up with more PT than the two of them combined (and put together a quiet, but decent line for himself)… so I guess this was just Nellie being Nellie? JaMario Moon threw up his roto spread and not much else once again (this time failing to get a single rebound, which I found odd). Several Raptors benefited substantially from the overtime period (Calderon in particular, who doubled his FTA’s in OT). Bargnani had a nice line, but be careful with this… It is too early to call it a fluke as his nice lines were last year, but he is VERY BAD about doing this, luring you to hold on to him for a few more days or pick him up by showing off a beautiful spread of %’s, 3ptm and blocks.

Things to watch: Ronny Turiaf is now averaging 4.5 blocks per game, and judging by his fouls per game (5… in ~22 min), it appears as though Nellie has given him the green light to chase everything in sight. I don’t think he can keep up this pace, but very few guys who get 2+ bpg are not worth owning.


Sacramento – 77 at Miami – 103

This one was a slaughter from the get go. Sacramento really needs Francisco Garcia to get healthy so that they will have a shred of competent back court depth. Spencer Hawes put up another nice line (low FG% again, but that is his game), and Jason Thompson did well despite the alarming rate he put himself into foul trouble (picked up two in the last 3 minutes of the first quarter). Mario Chalmers didn’t do much with his 29 min outside of collecting 4 steals, and Michael Beasley made the best of being the only Heat starter in the game for most of the second half and put together a nice line (17-9-0-1-1 with no TO’s). Don’t read into any of the Miami bench players who rolled off decent lines in this game, both teams pulled their starters really early.

Things to watch: What will happen to Jason Thompson once Brad Miller returns? Reggie Theus was quoted the other day saying that “the bigs who play will be the ones who rebound”, taking this and the recent play of Thompson and incumbent Mikki Moore into account, it sounds like it is only a matter of time (possible very little time if Moore keeps playing like himself) before Thompson supplants him. I have no clue how this will translate into minutes, as Hawes will still have priority over him, but I don’t think Miller’s return will end Thompson’s fantasy relevance for this season.


Chicago – 80 at Boston – 96

This one was never very close. Derrick Rose found a touch of foul trouble in the third quarter, but still managed to post the best line of any Bulls player (with Joakim Noah a very close second). Doc left the Boston starters in a lot longer than he had to, as they played through the third quarter. Tony Allen and Leon Power both had interesting elements of their game pop up in the extended garbage time, but their flaws leave them on the fringe of fantasy worthy (Powe not knocking down a helpful % of his ridiculous FTA#, and Allen’s FG% making his hustle stat potential difficult to stomach). Boston is definitely not slacking off after last season though, their defense is killing teams.

Worst line of the night: Tyrus Thomas (an argument can be made for Corey Maggette). 7/8 from the stripe was a pleasant surprise, the 2 blocks and 6 boards are nice blah blah blah. But 2/17 from the field makes this the ugliest line of the night in my opinion… I mean how did he even get that many attempts?!?


Orlando – 84 at Memphis – 86

This game must have been miserable to watch. 47 total fouls, the teams combined to shoot 40.7% from the field… Despite winning, no one on Memphis really had a nice line. I mean Rudy Gay put up 29 points, went 7/8 from the line and had two blocks… but 9/23 from the field and 4 rebounds can’t be in line with what his owners expect. Darrell Arthur put together a line nearly as bizarre as Corey Brewer’s 17 rebound, zero FTA game last year, by recording 10 boards (all defensive), 2 blocks, and 2 steals, and nothing else. Rashard Lewis started hot and cooled off, Turk did the opposite, and Pietrus was in foul trouble from the second quarter on.

Trendspotting: I never thought I would be saying this… but this is two straight games where Memphis has made a very talented team play ugly. The almost beat Houston doing this the other night, and they snuck up on Orlando to snatch victory tonight. Hopefully this is just an early season fluke, because their doormat defense was one of the most useful things in the league last year when it came to finding streamers.


Denver – 113 at Los Angeles Clippers – 103 (OT)

Denver’s bigs put up nice lines again, Linas Kleiza did very little with his opportunity again (which is weird, because he KILLED in Melo-less games last year), and Dahntay Jones had a very “where did that come from!?” line with his 12 FTA’s (of which he hit 11). Baron Davis left the game in the second quarter with a hip injury after a hard fall, and is currently considered doubtful to play Saturday (from Rotoworld). Al Thornton really popped off delivering a rock solid all around line of 30-11-2-3-1 on 1 TO, 11/21 from the field and 8/10 from the line (no threes however :( ). Even with Baron Davis out, Ricky Davis only managed 14 minutes… and maybe I have just seen him through fantasy goggles (interpret this however you want) for too long, but such low PT struck me as odd.

A star is born?: JR Smith appears to have rounded out his game… or at least his mind set. In the first two games he has filled out his non-3ptm cats more than ever before. If this continues after Melo returns, he will be… this year’s Mike Dunleavy? I can’t believe I just used that as a complement?


*San Antonio – 99 at Portland – 100

Despite some REALLY touchy calls early in the fourth quarter, this game was a blast to watch, as it was pretty close throughout and got tight down the stretch (Finley missing a relatively uncontested 12 foot base line J in transition as time expired). Duncan is really taking command offensively with Ginobili out of the line up (averaging 29.5 points through 2 games). Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge were very impressive down the stretch, and ultimately pulled the game out for Portland. Matt Bonner started but was scaled back to 12min tonight, and Joel Przybilla started for Oden, and each of these guys did about what one would expect given their time on the floor. Roger Mason looked really good in silver and black once again, and would fit well with any team trying to win 3ptm.

Things to watch: Nicolas Batum put up a JaMario Moon line tonight, and was very exciting to watch in the process. Not worth a pick up, but his battle for minutes with Outlaw is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Game Notes: 10/30

School prevented me from watching anything tonight, and I am going to declare this as the only reason the Mavs lost tonight (although the Hornets leveled Phoenix, so at least some things went as I would have them go if I were master of the universe and all it surrounds).



Charlotte – 79 at Cleveland – 96

Everyone rotation Cav got low minutes, and from the box score it looks like they had this game in hand easily… pretty much from the get go. Ben Wallace had 5 blocks, but it appears that most of them came against ground bound Sean May (who lived up to his bill as “out of shape” by registering only 16 minutes, and not doing anything productive while he was on the court). I’m not sure if the blowout can be held responsible for the low starters minutes on the Bobcat’s side, or if it is just a Larry Brown trick to play their two best players under 30 minutes?

Things to watch: if Boobie Gibson is given a permanent green light, as he was tonight he could be a nice guy to own. It would be a total “rags or riches” sort of situation though, in the same vein as Nate Robinson (so sort of like a homeless man’s Gilbert Arenas?)

Just happy to see your face: -=Tarence Kinsey=-!!! I am sure several of us have nice memories of this guy from his hot streak in Memphis two years ago. Rest assured, if every swing man on Cleveland’s roster gets hurt at the same time their team will be in good hands.

Houston – 112 at Dallas – 102

Yao Ming put in his annual early season slaughter of whatever defense the Mavs pester him with that never works. In general, the rockets just look as though they were on fire… or Dallas just played ultra passive/terrible defense, like they did much of last season after acquiring Kidd. Chuck Hayes got more PT than Luis Scola (Scola may have been in early foul trouble? I can never tell with 3 PF's when I don't watch the boxes live)… and I don’t really know what to make of this because Dallas usually kills Hayes (but maybe Carl Landry has taken on that role, as he picked up a Perkins-esque 5 fouls in 7 minutes). The Dallas big 3 killed it (although Dirk registering zero assists is weird… I figured he would average ~4 this year… judging by the # of FGA’s though, I am guessing that this was a relatively slow game?), but the supporting cast fell flat. Jason Terry and Erick Dampier specifically were kind of disappointing, because they each turned in superb numbers with Kidd running things last year. Of course... maybe Houston is just a great defensive team (which seems more than likely. It was nice to see their rebound totals come down to earth playing against a decent team (as opposed to Rudy Gay and the chuckers))

Things to watch: Brandon Bass got 25 minutes. He is better than he showed tonight, and could turn into a nice PF option if he can average 4-5 FTA’s and knock them down like he did at the beginning of last season.

New Orleans – 108 at Phoenix – 95

Perhaps proving just how magical the Hornet’s season was last year, Peja Stojacovic and Tyson Chandler each missed part (or all) of this game with sprained right ankles and are not expected back within the week. At least we aren’t talking about knees or backs. The box score tells me that Phoenix was never really in this game, and that Phoenix’ only consistent fantasy options may be Nash and Amare, as all of their wing players sort of negated each by eating other’s minutes. I need a couple of games against average competition to really make a judgment on them, their team FG% has been very good through two games, but the 24 TO’s (10 via steals) and inability to force any on the other end tonight is kind of disconcerting… not to mention the foul disparity in the Hornets favor (and the game was in PHX… so who knows). Overall, all the studs on both sides did what we expect, and none of the role players did anything out of character.

New Orleans injuries and who to pick up: Peja and Tyson's injuries are both considered short term (~5-10 days), but James Posey will be worth a pick up if all of the high upside guys are gone from your FA pool and you need 3ptm. I would LOVE to recommend Julian Wright (and normally would, given the positions of the injured players), but he is recovering from an ankle injury of his own… so Posey it is. Hilton Armstrong has shown Amir Johnson-esque potential at times during his career, but displayed time after time last year, and once again tonight, that in the absence of Chandler… he still sucks.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Game Notes: 10/29

Toronto – 95 at Philadelphia – 84

Thad Young got into foul trouble early in the first half, and for most of the game it seemed that Philly just couldn’t buy a shot (and led to poor offensive numbers for pretty much everyone on their roster). Sammy did a nice job of cleaning it up (17 boards, 9 offensive) but ran into a touch of foul trouble himself at the end of the third and fourth quarters. Whether this general inefficiency is a product of early season rough edges, tough Raptor defense, or merely the result of having too many guys who need the ball in their hands remains to be seen, but for now I wouldn’t make too much of it. JaMario Moon started for Toronto but didn’t do much but pick up his 1 3ptm, 2stl and 1 blk. I was surprised that Kris Humphries did not see any court time though, as the Raptors bench is pretty short and he was effective last season.

Things to watch: Jason Kapono’s minutes and Andrea Bargnani’s shooting. If Kapono gets a regular 20+mpg he immediately becomes a top 10 (at least) 3ptm guy. If Andrea can ever put the pieces together he will be a monster… but his inability to consistently knock down shots in regular season games just frustrates me to no end. If this inconsistency continues I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Toronto rotation shaken up.

Atlanta – 99 at Orlando – 85

In a match up of Georia prep school rivals, Dwight Howard was 4 assists shy of a 5x5 while shooting better from the field than the stripe, and aside from Pietrus was really the only member of the Magic who performed up to par. Again, too early to read anything into it, most likely early season rust. Atlanta’s shooters on the whole were cold as ice, but Joe Johnson and Josh Smith each had very nice games (Josh Smith in particular, running off 17-10-1-4-5 without a single turnover). Showing flashes of last season, Rashard Lewis did not attempt a shot until nearly 7 minutes had passed in the first quarter, and finished the game with a weaker line than Mickael Pietrus (ok, the two steals are nice, but comparing a 2nd rounder to a ~10th rounder should never happen… and I wouldn’t bring this up if it was new, but it seemed like at least once a week last year he would be outperformed by Keith Bogans (and more regularly than that by Hedo “The Turkish Delight” Turkoglu). The point I am trying to make is that I do not understand why he is rated so high… and this is coming from a guy who freaks out over efficient 3ptm guys). To top it off, he fouled out early in the fourth quarter!

Don’t read too much into: Mo Evans. He will get minutes this year, but tonight was an aberration. Marvin Williams will be back from suspension in their next game and should take at least 35 min for himself, dropping Mo down to 20ish mpg.

New Jersey – 95 at Washington – 85

In a move sure to frustrate fantasy GM’s everywhere, New Jersey ran their guys in platoons for most of the night with 10 guys getting 14+ minutes apiece (Vince, at 34min, was the only one over 31). What is even worse though… is that this tactic worked. Looking at the box it appears that Caron Butler had one of his games where his shot doesn’t go early so he begins to defer… or maybe Washington was just following suit with a dozen or so other teams tonight who just had ABYSMAL offensive outings. Andray Blatche got a lot of minutes, but his “Curry line” is about the opposite of what most expected. Yi had a nice line, and seemed to be the most significant of the New Jersey bigs… but this one is still too early to call. Grab him if you are in a deep league, otherwise I would wait another game or two on this situation.

Things to watch: Jarvis Hayes was the first guy off the Nets bench, and in the past he has produced fantasy friendly lines on occasion. If they stick to this deep rotation, and he sticks around 30mpg he will be worth picking up. And by that I mean if he has a nice game the next time out, you should grab him if his line fits with your team.

Miami – 115 at New York – 120

David Lee is giving me hawt flashes of 04-05 Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford has finally found a coach who understands him… and I’m still trying to figure out how Chris Duhon came out of this deal with paltry 3 assists. The Knicks were blowing the doors off the Heat until they let their foot off the gas in the fourth. Essentially, if you drafted any Knick other than Duhon, you should have nothing but warm fuzzies for this game. Dwyane Wade put up a vintage Wade line (26/7/9 with 5 TO’s). Haslem had a vintage Zach Randolph line (24/10 and nothing else), but more importantly… STARTED AT C. Beasley was crummy, but I can’t comment on him too much without watching him (if someone whose market broadcast this game could chime in on how he looked it would be much appreciated).

Don’t read too much into: Any of the Heat players stats. The Knicks are essentially last year’s Suns… only worse defensively. It’s hard to resist Chalmers near triple double on 1 TO… but remember 2 years ago when Nick Collison nearly averaged 20-20 in 3 games against Phoenix? Lets just say that the only time a team will get 92 FGA’s and 33 FTA’s in the same game, it is against a team such as the Knicks.

Important note: Chris Quinn got a DNP-CD. If you bought what Funston or whoever was cooking about him being a sleeper stud… you probably won’t regret dropping him.

I am afraid I will always regret: dropping Q-Rich for Kelenna Azuibuke

*Milwaukee – 98 at Oklahoma City – 87

I tried to watch this game… I really did (it is given to my television market… as though my cable provider thinks I want it… when honestly I would prefer my fox sports affiliate go back to showing rodeos and the other crap they do when denying me Mavs games). It was just ugly. All of it. Russell Westbrook looked sharp (he was everywhere on defense), but the rest of OKC just seemed to be sleep walking. If I wasn’t so convinced of Larry Brown’s intent to pound Charlotte into the ground, and Kevin Durant’s impending mega stardom (ie his return to that SICK post all-star break line from last year), I would call OKC the worst team in the league. I mean they lost to MILWAUKEE!!! (for summary of the Bucks, read the one from yesterday and reverse everything. ie Charlie V played a lot and collected nice stats, Richard Jefferson was nice and efficient while Michael Redd didn’t make a shot until the third quarter, Andrew Bogut… well he was in foul trouble all game again)

I never thought I would see…: a team with zero viable fantasy options. That is what OKC is looking at if they keep this rotation. Even KD is a stretch if he doesn’t get over 30 mpg (and play in an offense that is willing to acknowledge that he is the best player on the floor).

Indiana – 94 at Detroit – 100

Indiana put up nice stats as a team (Granger in particular, absolute boss), it looks like they just did themselves in with TO’s. My Marquis Daniels prediction blew up in my face, as he got 30 min and did pretty much nothing with it (12-3-3 on 4 TO’s?! you can keep that to yourself good sir!). Troy Murphy slayed as much as he knows how, and I can’t imagine his minutes dropping too much from the 37 he received tonight… so congrats those of you who drafted him. Rodney Stuckey received a disappointing 19 min, but still posted a decent line (8-3-4 with a steal… just a handful of points/FTA’s off of what most were expecting). Amir had 3 blocks, but the PT division between him, Maxiell and McDyess was non-existent, so he will probably remain as inconsistent as he was last year... For now

Nothing to watch here… really the only surprise was seeing my mann Walter Hermann get 15 minutes. I wish he would get traded to New York

Sacramento – 96 at Minnesota – 98

I hesitate to put too much stock into this game, because both of these teams should be very weak defensively, and in most efficiency cats this year… but ignoring that, OMG WOW this game was the most surprising one of the night. I mean, where to start!? Kevin Love putting up 12-9 with a steal and two blocks in 19 minutes? Jason Thompson putting up 18-10 on sick %’s in 22 minutes? Corey Brewer going for 8-7-4-3 and no TO’s!!? Spencer Hawes doing 12-14 with a three and SIX BLOCKS!!?!!??! Kevin Martin threw in a clunker, and Beno Udrih got a good start on his 1:1 ast/to ratio, Rashad McCants reminded us once again what volume scorers are all about, Al Jefferson was business as usual, and Mike Miller was kind of disappointing… but the fringe fantasy guys blowing up were the theme of this game.

I need to take my own advice…: and un-pick up Jason Thompson in all of my leagues. Sure, his killer %’s tonight are exactly what he did in the summer league… and I am totally into that. But somehow I forgot that Brad Miller will be back soon, and Thompson’s already scant minutes will evaporate. I’m not trying to say picking him up is a bad move… just that there is risk involved I guess?

*Phoenix – 103 at San Antonio – 98

If you guys haven’t seen Popovich’s prank at the beginning of this game… youtube it, or just watch ESPN at some point in the next month or so, as I am sure they will be re-playing it ad nauseam until at LEAST Thanksgiving. The Spurs got off to a slow start (seemed to forget that Parker owns Nash?), and never really made up that difference. Matt Barnes makes a great Sun, he might make better whiny cry baby faces than the rest of the team combined. I LOVE the Spurs line up of Parker/Mason/Finley/Udoka/Duncan, Roger Mason fits in great with what they want him to do. Really… the only fantasy noteworthy things here are that slowing things down had the effect one should expect, and that Terry Porter has no qualms about playing rookies, as Robin Lopez was made into a fool by Timmy/TP at least 1239087 times, and still got 4th quarter minutes.

Thing to watch: Matt Bonner got 30 minutes…? It’s true! I don’t know if this is a temporary thing until Oberto gets back, or if it is more of a permanent thing that represents an evolution in the way the Spurs do things. Worth looking into if you are running a small ball H2H team, an all white team, or… just want a C that will can 3’s without wrecking your FG% (due to low volume, not his actual FG%).

Memphis – 71 at Houston – 82

This game was a lot closer than it looks. Memphis was within 4 until there were ~45 seconds left. OJ Mayo played as expected (5/20 FG, 10-5-2 with 3 TO’s), Marc Gasol did an impressive job of avoiding fouls, especially considering that he (I am assuming) was matched with Yao for most of the game. In the end posting 12-12 with 2 blocks, not bad at all! Darrell Arthur, and Luis Scola got huge boards as well, but this can be attributed to the teams combining to shoot 59/157 (or 37.6%), the overall offensive production of both teams reflects this horrific % (really, the only guys who lived up to/surpassed expectations were these surprise monster rebounders).

Things to watch: Arthur got so many boards in part because he logged ~twice as much PT as Hakim Warrick. Hakim may be worth holding for another game, to see if he plays more against a smaller team… but he was #1 on my chopping block in the rush to grab Jason Thompson.

Denver – 94 at Utah – 98

Deron Williams didn’t play (says he is targeting November 4th to return), Linas Kleiza picked up quick fouls in the first quarter and never really got into the flow after that, Carmelo is serving a 2 game suspension… these things make it difficult to read a lot into this game. Boozer put up a classic Booz line (25-14 on 11/18 FG). Ronnie Brewer and CJ Miles both disappointed me, as I was hoping CJ in particular would shine and become consistent enough to be a dependable fantasy option. Denver has no depth beyond JR Smith. The Birdman and Balkman are alright… I guess… but really, JR Smith, Kleiza, and Anthony Carter are all going to get huge (for them) PT this year, even once Carmelo gets back. If Kenyon Martin can stay healthy and continue putting together lines like the one tonight he will be one of the better draft day deals.

Things to watch: I know Deron Williams is a PG… but I would have thought his absence would have opened “general PT” not just “guard PT” since Utah’s backup PG’s aren’t too impressive and AK can run the offense. AK got some extra, but I am interpreting the fact that Millsap did not as Millsap being no more fantasy worthy than Amir Johnson.

New Orleans – 108 at Golden State – 103

CP3 mysteriously vanished halfway through the first quarter and did not return until midway into the second… had this not happened I don’t think this game would have been this close, because New Orleans was rolling from the get go. Once I got over the shock of seeing “D. Nelson” in the starting lineup and thinking Don Nelson had grown so frustrated with his PG’s that he was taking on a temporary role as player/coach (I wish I was joking about this…), I settled in and found nice lines all around. Corey Maggette did wonderful things (now to see if he can keep up 28ppg…), Azuibuke didn’t quite do what I thought he would but managed a nice line none the less (I was expecting more threes, less steals). All of the Hornets starters pretty much hit their averages from last year (Tyson had 3 blocks… but we’ll have to wait before declaring this a thing), and much like last year their bench did nothing that belongs on a fantasy roster. Why can’t all NBA teams be this straightforward!?!

Things to watch: Ronny Turiaf. He had four blocks tonight… and given GS’s lack of bigs, I think it is safe to put him in the same category as Amir… in that he could be a hot pick up very soon if he collects a regular 25-30 min. ESPECIALLY if GS moves Harrington for a PG who can set up their bigs with shots that are total cake.

LA Lakers – 117 at LA Clippers – 79

Why was this game on ESPN? Seriously… I mean the Lakers are fun to watch, but just seeing teams get reamed isn’t really what I dig. Thornton scored (on nice %’s which was a surprise) but didn’t support it with peripherals, Kaman turned it over a lot and couldn’t manage much else… Judging by Steve Novak getting 14 minutes I am going to guess that the benches were brought in early on this one? It is nice to see though, that even in a blow out the Laker studs can still manage nice lines (Gasol in particular, I don’t dig the FG%, but on such low volume, and with a full line of 13-9-6, 7/7 FT and no TO’s, who cares!?). Tough to gather much of anything here because it was so lopsided.

Things to watch: Lamar Odom. I want to see what happens in a game that is actually close, if they put him in Bynum’s place with Kobe and Gasol… but right now it looks like his stats will be all over the place (as most of you predicted I believe?), and most likely on kind of terrible considering his ADP.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Game Notes: 10/28

The Celtics rings were surprisingly classy (maybe I just have terrible memories of that gaudy thing the Heat put together a few years ago?), Paul Pierce cried, and Derrick Rose was sharper than pretty much everyone aside from the aforementioned, tender bellied Truth.

The stars denote games that I watched. And in the case of tonight, the should also give you an idea of how many times I saw the feature length NBA Live commercial with the renderings of athletes that are so real... but off by just enough to be REALLY creepy. Maybe some day EA will spend more time on their game play than rendering LeBron James' tattoos.



*Cleveland – 85 at Boston – 90

Delonte started and got heavy minutes, but didn’t produce much of anything. In general though, Cleveland’s offense was just a total mess. For some reason they kept trying to use Varejao like he was KG or something (many times he would put the ball and the floor and dish or shoot… usually ending in an ugly miss or a TO, or putting the receiver in a situation that forced him into an extremely difficult shot or a TO). LeBron choked on FT’s down the stretch, and Paul Pierce had his way with him on both ends for most of the game. Boston wasn’t much sharper on offense (aside from Pierce, who was on fire in the third quarter), which led to KG and Ray being semi-invisible for most of the game.

Things to watch: Tony Allen was one of the first guys off the Celtics bench, and once he calmed down in the second half showed flashes of the player that burst onto the fantasy scene two years ago (and blew out his knee throwing one down after the whistle). If he gets a consistent 25 mpg he will be worth owning.

Fantasy Irrelevant Observation: Rajon Rondo loves to pull out that copped Pistol Pete “behind the back pass fake”, but I have not ONCE seen him begin a play with this move and end it with a made field goal. I don’t have a problem with styling things up, but at least use discretion man… I mean tonight you did it without a team mate inside of 25 feet relative to you.



Milwaukee – 95 at Chicago – 108

Charlie V and Andrew Bogut both picked up 2 quick fouls in the first, and Bogut continued to find foul trouble until late in the third quarter. While Bogut ended up with decent PT, Charlie didn’t make it back out… and while I haven’t heard anything about an injury, I have heard things about Skiles having a crush on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (who could collect decent defensive stats if given big minutes… Which is only something to watch if Erick Dampier is not available in your league). Most of the Bulls played just about as well as anyone could have reasonably expected. Sefalosha started, but Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, and Derrick Rose each logged at least 2x as many minutes, so if I were to make a prediction after one game, it looks like Thabo’s best case situation is a ceremonial starter/good luck charm/Royal Ivey with the Hawks in 05-06 sort of role.

Things to watch: Ramon Sessions wasn’t even active for this game. Drop him for one of today’s surprises, or see if anyone jumps out tomorrow. Whatever the case, there is no reason to own him right now.

Trendspotting: The bucks committed 30 fouls, yielding 44 FT’s to a notoriously perimeter based Chicago squad. If this had more to do with Skiles than home court officiating, it will be something to take into consideration when looking at streamer match ups in the future.



*Portland – 76 at Los Angeles Lakers – 96

Greg Oden started, and within 5 minutes he had picked up two fouls and injured his right foot. He returned for a little while in the second quarter (and looked good in his scant post up opportunities, and most situations that did not require him to move quickly), but stayed in the locker room for the entire second half. x-rays were inconclusive and an MRI will be done tomorrow. Travis Outlaw was a surprise start at SF and put together a decent line (minimal peripheral stats, but a couple threes and a nice FG% aren’t bad). It’s too early to say if he will hold this role, but you could definitely do worse if you are in a situation where you need to grab a guy. Overall the Blazers seemed scared stiff until about halfway through the third quarter. Their offense in the first half consisted primarily of Steve Blake or Sergio Rodriguez dribbling out the shot clock and dumping the ball to Brandon Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge with 3 seconds left (resulting in the low FG%'s of Roy and Aldridge). Minimal ball movement… just ugly in general. The Lakers on the other hand looked amazing. Bynum came in a little short of expectations, but for now I would blame that on A) the pace of this game B) the Lakers shooting a very high % and the Blazers shooting a ton of threes. It is difficult to take much from this game (other than Rudy Fernandez not being shy at all when it comes to shooting) since it was a blow out from pretty much halfway through the first quarter on.

Things to watch: If Trevor Ariza continues to knock down 3’s he should replace Vlad Rad in the starting lineup. Regardless of his role on the team though, if he continues to log 25+ minutes he will be worth owning for hustle stats alone.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Early Season Watch List

Quite possibly the most exciting time of the fantasy basketball season; the first 10 days or so give you the opportunity to claim bragging rights or shame (and usually some of both) for your offseason predictions.

While there are the "sleepers" who everyone seems to be keyed into at the beginning of August (such as LaMarcus Aldridge last season, and David Lee to a lesser extent this year), a few guys always slip through the cracks... and getting these difference makers for free will change the course of your season.

Below is a list of my favorite break out candidates, guys who may be extremely valuable for the first few weeks of the season before injury situations resolve, and position battles that will hopefully play out and settle in the first couple of weeks this season. They are all available in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, but obviously this will vary depending on your personal situation.

The point of this article though, is to watch games and box scores like a hawk for the first week or so. I hate to call this a "veteran tactic", because it seems obvious, but you will be kicking yourself if you miss out on an 03-04 Flip Murray, 04-05 Bobby Simmons, or 05-06 Boris Diaw.

(while the list is roughly in the order of "most likely to succeed/most potential for long term value" to "least likely/least value over the course of the season", I recommend prioritizing by the needs of your team. These players were considered under a 12 team, H2H, standard 9 cat (FG%, FT%, 3ptm, pts, reb, ast, stl, blk, to) format)


Kelenna Azuibuke (SG/SF - Golden State)

I liked Azuibuke before I heard about the possibility of Stephen Jackson starting at PG for the Warriors. I am holding out hope that he improved his FT shooting in the offseason, but even if he didn’t… you are essentially getting a JR Smith who will get 6ish rpg and a handful of blocks if given 30+ mpg, which he should come close to even if the Warriors stick with a more conventional lineup. With S-Jax at point, it is virtually guaranteed that he will hit this mark.

Quentin Richardson (SG/SF - New York)/NY rotation

Mike D’Antoni likes a short rotation and as of right now the only guys who really seem set in New York are Duhon, Jamal Crawford, and David Lee. Some combination of Knicks guards and small forwards (Nate Robinson, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, Mardy Collins) are available FA’s in the vast majority of leagues. My favorite right now is Q, but if Chandler gets strong PT I think he will have a better line. The point is that you should try to grab any of these players that log over 25 minutes in the first Knicks game, to get a slice of D’Antoni’s magic offense.

Sean May (PF - Charlotte)

He STUNK in the preseason, but Larry Brown loves big guys who can work the mid-range game. It should be apparent very early whether or not May at PF will fulfill LB’s expectations, and if he does he should be a nice source of points and boards at a position that is deceivingly shallow.

Marquis Daniels (SG/SF - Indianapolis)

Mike Dunleavy is hurt, and there is no consensus on how bad it is (but he has been confirmed as out for their opener). Marquis has the potential to produce across the board if given heavy PT. He lacks in 3ptm and FT% compared to most guards, but his silky smooth matrix handle essentially guarantees access to the lane whenever he wants it. If he takes the bulk of Dunleavy’s vacated PT, you should grab him. If you are in a competitive league… you should probably grab him if he starts, and then just hope things shake out well. He will essentially be worthless once Dunleavy returns, but in the mean time he has the potential to be a serious difference maker in an up-tempo system.

Roger Mason (PG - San Antonio)/Manu’s minutes

With Ginobili out Mason should theoretically have plenty of opportunity to distinguish himself. Michael Finley is old, and Ime Udoka doesn’t offer much other than hustle and birth marks. Enter Roger Mason. He won’t receive the freedom that Ginobili does inside of the Spurs’ system, but he can knock down shots like it isn’t even a thing, so if you are into guys who score in bunches, pile up 3ptm on low TO's, and put up high FT% on regrettably low attempt numbers, Roger Mason is your guy!

Johan Petro (C - Oklahoma City)

Chris Wilcox will probably get hurt next week, and Nick Collison… is Nick Collison. The Thunder’s frontcourt is BEGGING for someone to take command of it. I would have never tagged Petro as that guy, given his questionable role not only on this team, but in the league, over the past few seasons. But he had a nice preseason, so who knows! Keep on eye on him is all I’m saying.

Delonte West (PG/SG - Cleveland)

Hopefully West will get the starting job so he can be on the court with Mo Williams and LeBron, because Sasha Pavlovic won’t show up in box scores regardless of what his role on the team is. Delonte won’t blow you away with anything, but if he starts he should be given the opportunity to do what he does best (ie spot up shooting), and avoid the weaker parts of his game (ie playmaking), all the while providing the defensive goodies that have kept him on roto league rosters for most of his time in the league.

New Jersey frontcourt

Someone has to get minutes. A month ago I was really pulling for Sean Williams, but now it looks as though Brook Lopez and Yi are going to win out; which is not bad. Bobby Simmons could do some interesting things as well if he gets heavy minutes (35+mpg), but anything lower and his production will be inconsistent at best. Barring the effects of foul trouble etc. I would definitely recommend grabbing a New Jersey big who gets opening night PT.

Nick Young (SG/SF - Washington)

He is a little banged up, but the Wizards are so depleted that he should get an opportunity to be a difference maker anyway. I can’t say anything beyond wait and see, as most of my exposure to Nick Young has been through youtubes of his sick dunks. But the Wizards play fast, and Young can fill it up, ergo if he gets consistent PT he could be worth owning.

Detroit Frontcourt (Maxiell and Amir)

The problem with this situation is that the players involved (Amir, Jason Maxiell, McDyess) will most likely kill each other’s value. However, if Amir or Maxiell manage to win a bulk of the minutes they will be worth owning (I exclude Antonio from this situation because he can’t block shots at the rate these two whippersnappers clean up).

Luis Scola (PF/C - Houston)

Much like the Detroit situation, if one bench player in Houston wins the bulk of the PT (Scola or Landry… I’m leaning toward Scola because of the time he spent at C while Yao was out last year), he will have the potential to be fantasy relevant.

Cuttino Mobley (SG - Los Angeles Clippers)

He had a nice pre-season, and if Baron doesn’t play he could put up some nice classic SG lines for a week or two. Definitely not going to be a long term solution, but an early season streamer for sure!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Mission Statement

This blog will provide a summary of every day that passes during the NBA season (in the form of a daily post). Due to a lack of resources these summaries will not be able to provide truly groundbreaking information (such as Antione Walker's life philosophy re: his role in Memphis), but instead will focus more on box scores, "the rumor mill", and periodic mocking various fbb experts.

Who had a surprising big night?

Why did player xxx only play 15 minutes?

What are the chances of these things repeating?

You know, the important things; the things that keep you up at night wondering... what if I had drafted Linas Kleiza instead of JR Smith?

These daily synopses will be suplamented from time to time by articles on strategy (possibly by guest contributors!!!), the generic "hot/not" transaction guides, columns damning Larry Brown and his suffocating ways. You know the drill.

In the mean time, I hope everyone's drafts went well, and I hope this blog will help you through the fantasy season!

Tell your friends!!!